Ambergan Prime

Dear primary care doctor, Jeff Bezos is about to devour your lunch. All of it. And then he’ll eat the table, the plates, the napkins and the utensils too, so you’ll never have lunch ever again. Oh yeah, and they’ll also finally disrupt and fix health care once and for all, because enough is enough already. Mr. Bezos, it seems, got together with two of his innovator buddies, Warren Buffet from Berkshire Hathaway and Jamie Dimon from J.P. Morgan, and they are fixing up to serve us some freshly yummy and healthy concoction.
Let’s call it Ambergan for now.

This is big. This is huge. It comes from outside the sclerotic “industry”. And it’s all about technology. The founders are no doubt well versed in the latest disruption theories and Ambergan will be a classic Christensen stealth destroyer of existing markets. When the greatest investor that ever-lived combines forces with the greatest banker in recent memory and the premier markets slayer of all times, who happens to be the richest man on earth, all to bring good things to life (sorry GE), nothing but goodness will certainly ensue.

Everybody inside and outside the legacy health care industry is going to write volumes about this magnificent new venture in the coming days and months, so I will leave the big picture to my betters. But since our soon to be dead industry has been busy lately bloviating about the importance of good old fashioned, relationship based primary care, perhaps it would be useful to understand that Ambergan is likely to take the entire primary care thing off the table and stash it safely in the bottomless cash vaults of its founders. It’s not personal, dear doctor. It’s business. Ambergan will be your primary care platform and you may even like it.

I am not sure what Mr. Buffet is contributing to this venture, other than cash and the warm bodies of his employees to pilot the venture. As to Mr. Dimon, he could probably run a modern analytics-based, risk-assuming health management entity, a.k.a. insurance company, while blindfolded and with both hands tied behind his back, so he may be useful in the short term. Let’s face it though, the most interesting actor here is Mr. Bezos and his Amazon platform of everything. Whatever else happens, it is probably safe to assume that within the next ten to twenty years, most people will be getting much expanded primary care services directly, and almost exclusively, from Amazon.

Amazon is a transactional platform, where people buy and sell things that Amazon does not make, and often does not even stock. With its more recent forays into TV, movies and music, Amazon also has some experience selling, mostly subscription based, services to consumers. As strange as it may sound though, most Amazon profits come from a very different source. Amazon Web Services (AWS), a computing platform (cloud) service, mostly for businesses and governments is a modest part of Amazon revenues, but a huge contributor to its profits. This lay of the Amazon land practically begs for a little cross pollination, and health care may very well be the ideal vehicle for that.

Cloud services like AWS are essentially eliminating inhouse professionals and expertise in maintaining the basic infrastructure of computing, outsourcing it all to Amazon. Rings a bell? You can almost see the Amazon ads for its primary care services, telling hospitals that they should concentrate on their core business, which is cutting people open and stitching them back together, and leave routine care to Amazon’s primary care platform, expanding or shrinking just in time to match organization demands, with guaranteed uptimes of 99.99999%, and so forth. And you can almost see the direct to consumer ads too, can’t you? Sure you can. You know you can.

A few days ago, before the Ambergan announcement sent the health care markets into a tailspin, Amazon hired a top doctor from one of those trendy primary care corporations that like to misrepresent themselves as Direct Primary Care (DPC).  People speculated that Mr. Bezos, who previously invested in another failed DPC organization, may be ready to try his own hand at fake DPC for his own employees. Meh…  It didn’t sound right to me, because with or without Ambergan, the Amazon stars were already aligning towards a massive thrust into health care, from the bottom up, as any good disruptor usually does.

A few weeks ago, Amazon offered us an opportunity to invite Jeff Bezos into our bedroom. No, he won’t interfere with anything. You won’t even know he’s there. He’ll just sit quietly beside your bed and watch you sleep, until you ask for something, if you do, and if you don’t, that’s fine too. It’s called Echo Spot and other than being unusually cute, the camera/microphone device that looks a little like an old-fashioned alarm clock, is just another extension of the Alexa line of surveillance/service products that run your home and your life, which is precisely what an ideal primary care doctor is supposed to do, i.e. keep you healthy, where health is defined as  “a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity”. 

You will subscribe to Ambergan Health. You will be monitored by Alexa in your home and maybe a future tiny Echo will let Alexa go outside with you. Perhaps they’ll throw Apple a crumb here to keep an eye on you when you leave your home, although it’s becoming increasingly unclear why you should. When you feel sick, you will summon a doctor on your Echo screen, and eventually he will appear preemptively before you get inconvenienced by any symptoms. You will be examined, diagnosed, treated and monitored in your home. And this should take care of most needs of most people most of the time. Not only is this a good start, but it’s a foundational step, and a perfect place to practice, because you can’t cater to complex needs if you have no idea how to care for simple needs.

Will there be room for marginal plays in drug pricing and maybe devices or exclusive contracting with delivery systems, as most experts (who drove health care into the ground) seem to think? Maybe, but negotiating lower prices for bulk purchasing is neither unique nor disruptive. It does sound like Ambergan will begin by deploying its services to its own employees, but make no mistake, this cannot be about creating yet another middling scheme for self-insured employers. If that’s all Ambergan is, there will be no innovation and no disruption. This must be about the entire health care market. This must be about doing to health care what Amazon did to retail. Amazon didn’t kill retail by restricting consumer choice to idiotic narrow networks of starving suppliers. That’s the Walmart model. Amazon decimated retail in precisely the opposite way. This is a business venture gunning for large market shares, and yes, I know it’s not seeking profits right now, but the entire Amazon retail bonanza started without profit and it remains mostly so to this day.

If you’re a primary care doctor, soon you will be able to have your own little storefront on Amazon, instead of or in addition to some strip mall or non-descript medical building. You will have to provide specifications for your services and cash will be king. Remember those new interstate licensing compacts? That will help here and so are the ever more relaxed telehealth rules and regulations. How about the recent rise in burned out doctors and cash practices? It’s almost like this was meant to be.

For the initial enterprise offering, substitute doctor farm for server farm and you get the AWS of medicine. For the end result, add another layer to the AWS, and substitute each doctor in the farm for say, detergent or movie, and you get the grand idea. Since everybody is shopping for substitutable services, this is the perfect insertion of the high-volume retail model into the high-profit AWS model.

Ambergan need not buy clinics, employ doctors or contract with systems, although it might start out that way. It just needs to get as many doctors as possible on the Amazon Health platform and have them compete, while people review and rate them into oblivion or success. The Amazon platform IS the network, and there will be terms, conditions, stars and promotions. There certainly are many legacy obstacles to overcome, and perhaps that is why Amazon couldn’t or wouldn’t go it alone. Throwing highly regulated markets wide open requires two strong lobbying arms, and a federal government willing to play fast and loose. The stars are indeed perfectly aligned for the first true disruption of our health care since 1965.

The Kentucky Apocalypse

The Commonwealth of Kentucky, best known for its weirdly colored grass, fine bourbon and equestrian pageantry, is about to be destroyed by the Trump administration. Many will suffer and perhaps die because Kentucky obtained a Medicaid waiver to impose additional and often insurmountable hardships on poor people receiving their free health care from the State. Since all I need to know, I learned on Twitter, allow me to share with you some illuminating insights from the Twitterati.

The evil Republican Governor of Kentucky, Matt Bevin, is salivating at the prospect of changing Medicaid as we know it, which obviously means that poor people and especially people of color will be suffering greatly under this plan. You really don’t need to know more, since this should be reason enough to mobilize the worried wealthy, who are tossing and turning in their featherbeds night after night, searching for ways to save the poor. For those who are neither worried nor wealthy enough to really care, here are the ominous provisions of the Kentucky racist, homophobic and xenophobic plan to change Medicaid (it is all these things because it was not only approved, but encouraged by the Trump administration, and we all know what that means).

The most egregious transgression in the Kentucky HEALTH plan is the imposition of work requirements on Medicaid beneficiaries. The first thing that comes to my mind when they say “work requirements” is that sign at the entrance to Auschwitz saying that work makes you free. In Kentucky, the Republicans argue that work makes you healthy. Same thing. So, what are those monstrous work requirements? Medicaid recipients who are not children, who are not below the poverty line, who are not elderly, who are not pregnant, who are not disabled, who are not medically or mentally frail, who are not providing care to children or other disabled individuals, who are not experiencing hardships such as domestic abuse or homelessness or other disruptions in their lives, must spend approximately 4 hours a day in school (any school), training (any training), apprenticing, acquiring useful skills, volunteering in the community, searching for a job or actually working somewhere.

Wait, wait…. Don’t raise your eyebrows and don’t think or say anything. If you are reading this, you are most likely rich, likely white, well-educated and perhaps even male. Medicaid beneficiaries are none of these things. We all know that any of those endeavors could be truly insurmountable hardships for people who are poor, black or Hispanic, uneducated and female. We know that, because we are not racists, misogynists or just plain bigoted SOBs, like the Republicans running Kentucky and that insufferable man running the country (or so he thinks).

Besides, most Medicaid beneficiaries who don’t fall in the exempt categories are already working. The ones who don’t work, or study, or do anything beneficial for themselves or others, are experiencing circumstances beyond their control. Helping them gain control over their lives is not Medicaid’s job because health and wellbeing have nothing to do with socioeconomic circumstances. And even if Kentucky wanted to “nudge” people into, say, getting their GED by funding a special rewards account, the bureaucracy involved in tracking all sanctioned activities, all exemptions and special circumstances is just too daunting for “these people” to navigate. Trust me on this one, I read it straight from the keyboards of Hollywood celebrities and several current and former big health care executives.

The second affront to humanity in the Kentucky plan is to charge poor people premiums for health insurance. Not only that, but those who can’t pay the premiums may be kicked off Medicaid. Granted, the premiums range from $1 to $15 (in lieu of regular copays), and all the exemptions for ill health, frailty and poverty do apply here as well, but that still leaves a sizeable number of poor people who could be denied medical care just because they forgot to pay the monthly dollar twice in a row, or couldn’t afford the higher premium. These highly discriminatory practices targeting the poor are unheard of in other industries or even in the commercial segment of health care itself, where insurance premiums are largely voluntary.

To be fair to Kentucky, there is a mechanism by which people who did not pay their premiums on time can regain their Medicaid coverage, which brings us to provisions reminiscent of the Jim Crow days in the South. The Kentucky plan, you see, has a literacy provision for regaining access to care. This is obviously targeted at people of color and immigrants from what the GOP Leader calls “shithole” countries, which as every wealthy person in Bel Air knows, cannot read or write, as evidenced by the thumbprint (or large X, depending on the State) appearing on most Medicaid applications. I have zero doubt that the Attorney General of the State of California will be taking the depraved Governor of Kentucky, and the Trump administration that enabled him, to court, and I have no doubt that the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals will find in favor of justice and equality, as it always does.

Until then, it seems that some Medicaid beneficiaries in Kentucky may have to sit through torturous health literacy or financial literacy classes, where they teach boring stuff about how to deal with debt, how health insurance works and how one can navigate these treacherous waters. There is no mention of a test or anything at the end, but this still seems like an unwarranted and blatantly racist imposition on “these people”.  Even more outrageous though is that Kentucky is providing incentives, which can be used to purchase gym memberships, for Medicaid beneficiaries to take other classes, such as chronic care management or nutrition or drug addiction coping skills.  What do illiterate people, drug addicts and all “these people” need gym memberships for? It’s like telling them to “eat cake” ….

And on and on goes the Kentucky HEALTH plan, listing one offensive section after another. The problem with this plan, which will live in infamy until the Sun goes supernova, is the cold, heartless and blatantly racist assumption that people who need Medicaid are as capable of functioning in modern society as anybody else. It ignores decades of teachings. It ignores hundreds of years of slavery and Anglo Saxon colonialist supremacy. And it ignores basic Christian values, because Jesus didn’t just sit there giving classes on how to fish. He gave people fish, and it worked great for Him and for His followers, eventually. If you see yourself as the Lord and Savior of huddled masses, you will want to do what Jesus did. If you feel equal to people who need Medicaid, but perhaps a bit luckier at this moment, you will dismiss everything I wrote here as total bullshit.