Monday, March 23, 2015

Putting Meaningful Use 3 in Context

On March 20, 2015 the stars aligned to produce four simultaneous events that will never again coincide during the life of human civilization. The first three, the vernal equinox, a total solar eclipse and a new supermoon, were brought to us by the stars themselves, and the fourth one was thrown out there by the government. The regulations for Meaningful Use Stage 3 were finally published. Meaningful use of electronic health records (EHR) was presented to us back in 2009 as part of a stimulus bill to help the crashed economy and to improve the quality and affordability of health care services for all Americans. The program is administered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and implemented by the Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC).

In its first stage, the meaningful use program delivered billions of dollars to technology companies that specialize in manufacturing EHR software, and ensured that clinicians of all types are no longer wasting time and resources on individual flesh and blood patients, but instead are meticulously collecting computable data for the sharing economy. This preliminary phase saw an order of magnitude increase in the number of small EHR companies and public/private, not-for-profit, certification and accreditation enterprises, along with a sharp decrease in the number of small medical practices. The second phase of the program, weeded out most new entrants into the EHR software market, solidifying the gains for large technology vendors. Physicians became disenchanted, lost interest and lost joy in their profession. Participation in the program plummeted posing a real threat to desired outcomes. Not to worry though, there is enacted regulation and legislation pending to crack a bigger and better whip on dissenters.

The brand new third phase of the meaningful use program sports a “keep your eyes on the prize” attitude and is forging ahead towards the finish line, bravely oblivious to the difficulties experienced in previous stages. Of course, six years into the program, one would expect to see some results indicating that all this money we are spending is moving the needle towards meeting the stated “do no evil” targets. There are no such preliminary results, and we are told that it is too soon to ask, because we won’t be able to see real improvements until the entire program, which is getting bigger and more expensive with each passing day, is completed. In the meantime, we are advised to entertain ourselves with an interminable stream of roadmaps, peppered with gaudy infographics supported by toddler level cartoonish videos, and continue to pay our taxes, leaving the thinking and planning to smarter people.

I will not waste your time with point by point analysis of the new meaningful use regulations, because I am certain the “industry” will produce the customary collateral, and because it is basically more of the same. If you have no idea what meaningful use is, you can stop reading now and go enjoy your last moments of blissful existence. For the rest of us, let’s just highlight a few tidbits that seem particularly helpful to practicing physicians.

Patient Engagement

If you had difficulties meeting the stage 2 quota of patients who view, download or transmit their medical information, the stage 3 regulations offer some relief. Just like you need not see, examine or treat real patients any longer, and can instead virtually analyze their computerized profiles, actual patients themselves need not engage with you electronically anymore. Instead you can provide something called an application programming interface (API) to your EHR, so a piece of software can extract information from your EHR on behalf of your patients, while bolstering the sharing economy.
There is nothing more engaging than having your colonoscopy reminder and eventual results pop up in your iTunes. Apple could presumably use anybody’s Apple ID to obtain medical records from any health care facility once one agrees to Apple’s terms of service, which nobody reads and which could contain informed consent to such health promoting activities. Since no EHR vendor is going to supply you with a thousand APIs, or agree to support connections from hundreds of little vendors, Apple is a likely candidate, and so are a handful of other very large sharing platforms.

Quid pro Quo

Just so you don’t feel left out of the sharing economy loop, meaningful use stage 3 requires that you accept data generated by your patients (sometimes unbeknownst to them) into your EHR. Of course Apple Health comes to mind again, but maybe other wearable snooping device manufacturers could be accommodated as well, at least in the initial stages. Since in the future, you will need to treat patients electronically without actually touching the person whose name (or number) is on that record, it will be very useful to open your EHR and see two years of hourly vitals monitoring graphs, before you initiate your next Skype session.

Practice Policies

Meaningful use stage 3 is adding a host of structured and codified data elements that you will need to collect and record. To that end, you should consider updating your policies as follows:
  • Require each patient to provide an updated resume at least once a year, because you need to continuously collect and update work history, including positions held, and financial information.
  • In collaboration with your attorney, create a crosswalk based on State laws and meaningful use regulations regarding what you must ask or are barred from asking your patients. For example, in some states you are not allowed to ask about guns in the domicile, and for meaningful use you must inquire how often your patient goes to church, and whether he or she is a homosexual (regardless of your specialty). It’s a fine balance and you don’t want to break any laws.

Practice Simplifications

In return for a bit more administrative work, meaningful use is opening a path for you to unload some of the clinical burden to technology vendors. You will need to subscribe to certified clinical decision support services that will gently integrate into your workflow, guide your thinking in an unobtrusive manner and record your actions in the background. For example, you would be able to avail yourself of automatically created order sets issued to your patients, based on their recorded symptoms and measurements (precision medicine starts here). This should save you time which could be better spent on examining Fitbit streams or analyzing curriculum vitae documentation.  

Safety and Stability

Whereas the preceding points are of interest to end users of EHR products, the government in its infinite and supreme technical wisdom has come up with 431 pages of dicta for software developers ranging from how to think about software development to how to market their products, down to proper capitalization of common words such as Health vs. health. If you were entertaining the titillating notion that the EHR market would eventually transcend its growing pains and come up with some cool stuff that will make you actually want to use software in your practice, rest assured that the government is protecting you from such folly.

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If you are a brilliant young entrepreneur thinking of putting together a small team of dedicated and knowledgeable buddies to build a really good and useful software product for doctors, forget about it. The 431 pages published by ONC are the highest barrier ever erected to entry into a market, with the possible exception of the market for weapons of mass destruction. If you are already up to your eyeballs in health IT, perhaps have been there for a long time, but are a small and agile development shop, your days are numbered. The ONC regulations are designed to bankrupt small technology vendors, just like CMS regulations are designed to bankrupt small practices. Innovation in health care technology is as dead as a door knob.

The meaningful use regulations have been written by and at the behest of global technology firms, both EHR and general tech, employing a novel form of lobbying, which uses current and future corporate/government employees, board officers and grant-dependent academics, with a list of conflicts of interests as impressive as I am sure their credentials are, to act as volunteer advisory groups to government agencies. There is plenty more in the new meaningful use rules and regulations, but there really is very little point in analyzing this stuff, because there is absolutely nothing you can do to change it. It is however heartwarming to see that Qualcomm, “an American global semiconductor company that designs and markets wireless telecommunications products and services”, representing the future of health care, is “beyond pleased and finally vindicated”. Hope you are too….

Monday, March 2, 2015

Obamacare Cheesy Poofs

One of the most revolting pleasures in life is to read learned opinions and in-depth analyses of consumers’ behavior written by beautiful people clad in designer clothing, dining at eclectic chic trattorias or enjoying the occasional canapé under crystal candelabra at their favorite charity gala. These wondrous creatures, having pored over a few disjointed numbers selectively allowed to escape from our struggle with health care, are informing us that there are good news worth celebrating at tonight’s black tie fundraiser event.  If you happen to be one of the uninvited or just invisible for all practical purposes except exploitation, you are welcome to go ahead and break out a can of Bud Light and a new bag of store brand Cheesy Poofs for the occasion.

Obamacare is working better than anyone dared to hope. Following the astounding news that some 30 million people have Obamacare, we are now told that the way we buy Obamacare insurance on the public exchanges is good news for the canapé people. Why? Because we are finally exhibiting typical shopping behavior in health care, which is what consumers ought to do, and which has been shown to reduce prices of things in every other consumer market. Typical shopping behavior means that consumers have no brand loyalty, and no long term commitments to anything. Instead, “price sensitive” consumers (“poor” is not a term used in polite company) are in a constant frenzy to find the cheapest product available, regardless of quality, utility, or benefit to themselves or society. 

It turns out that about one third of Obamacare exchange shoppers switched to new insurance plans this season. Nobody knows what they switched to or why they switched, but that’s not important right now. The good news is that they switched. Switching between the typical narrow network health insurance plans sold on the Obamacare exchanges, means that consumers switched their doctors and sometimes hospitals. It means that medical care is viewed as a commodity, like Cheesy Poofs. One brand is as good as the other, and the dollar store brand is the best. That’s how the free market works, except under the candelabra.

The entire notion of having your own doctor is pitifully presumptuous. How many of us have our own lawyer or accountant? Warren Buffet certainly does, but the rest of us do just fine with episodic roadside legal and financial services, and Internet do-it-yourself tools and advice. For the very poor who become afflicted with severe legal problems, an attorney usually paid minimum wage or nothing at all, will be provided by the state. No separate safety net exists for financial trouble, but debtor prisons are flourishing. Expecting medicine to remain different is a sign of old age, failure to innovate, and deteriorating mental capacities.

Personal services are not scalable, and scalability is the number one prerequisite for productization and marketability, and scalability is predicated on repeatability. A transaction defined by having two people in a room interacting behind closed doors is neither scalable nor repeatable. Once we capture the events in that previously private room, and digitize them into structured data routines, we can abstract a repeatable process definition. To make it scalable, we need to discard the parts that don’t have universal applicability. The result is a good enough product that can be used by most people most of the time, like TurboTax or making your last will and testament online. Oh, and one more thing. To encourage shopping for the cheapest venue, unencumbered by misguided brand loyalties, we need to eliminate any and all switching costs. In health care, we call it interoperability.

Continuity of care is redefined as the existence of a digital dossier called health record, not medical record, and this is a crucial difference, because health is a continuous thing from birth to death, while medical may be episodic and vulnerable to branding attempts. The existence of a public lifetime health record obviates the need for fuzzy interpersonal logic. Any interchangeable resource, human or electronic, can pick up where the previous resource left off. This brings us one step closer to Cheesy Poofs or electronics, where the actual product manufacturer is not the same as the brand name on the box, although once in a while a recognizable brand may be used for advertising (Intel inside) of an otherwise generic product (your laptop) to bestow an aura of quality for those who prefer to think of themselves as connoisseurs.

Health care, as we all love to point out at regular intervals, is different. Before we can plunge health care delivery into retail mode, we must transition health insurance to a retail paradigm. The vast majority of Americans became accustomed to health insurance as a job benefit, like paid vacation days. Often the only decision one had to make was between the crappy HMO plan and the slightly more expensive PPO plan offered by their employer. Nobody read the prospectus because the choice was exquisitely simple: can I go to any doctor I want, or do I have restrictions? Since at most businesses, the CEO (and the CEO family) had to use the same plans offered to employees, everybody was confident that their interests were well represented. We should have known that this was too good to last.

Obamacare is creating a retail market for health insurance. Essentially, the inefficient, unaffordable individual health insurance market model is to be propped up by government subsidies, while its unsustainable and inequitable methodology is copied over to the orders of magnitude larger employer sector. When the transition is complete, health insurance will no longer be a job benefit. Instead, a fixed value voucher will be given out by employers to be applied by employees towards health insurance purchases. Since salaries will not be affected by this change and since the voucher value will be trending to zero over time, most Americans will be forced to shop not just for insurance, but for everything insurance used to buy.

Retail medicine makes perfect sense to the canapé nibblers under the candelabra, because Isabella, the undocumented au pair, is very happy shopping at Walmart for all her health care needs, and she comes from a good upper class home in Venezuela. One can only imagine the entertaining spectacle offered by millions of little consumers scurrying ever each way, like so many rodents on a burning ship, holding on tight to their worthless little vouchers, desperately trying to find a way to pay for medicine. Help is on the way though. Transparency, you see, is the missing ingredient in this newly liberated market. Every Cheesy Poofs bag has a clear list of ingredients, starting with cornmeal, oil and salt, and ending with yellow coloring, and a big huge table of “nutrition facts”. This has been shown to work well for Cheesy Poofs and it is now being applied to health extortion bags, as well as boxes of health providers.

In a moving show of solidarity, the glitterati themselves are participating in this disruptive “sharing economy” because they all use Uber. Uber is replacement for taxis, and if the closest you ever came to paying for a private ride was on your high school prom night, that’s okay, because taxis are disproportionately used by rich people. Cheesy Poofs guzzlers take the bus or drive themselves. Uber for health care has been the wet dream of many entrepreneurs and their two bit consultants. In this “sharing economy”, lots of jobless hungry people provide on-demand unskilled services to more fortunate patrons, and then “share” their fare with a $41 billion global corporation. This business model is several thousand years old and it used to be called pimping in the prostitution field.

The Uberization of health care will require turning the same tricks used in the taxi industry, or the hotel industry, to neutralize licensure requirements for offering a service, any service. The eradication of credentialed expertise, goes by the name of democratization, because discrimination based on one’s education, training and expertise should be abolished in an enlightened society where only pigs can be more equal. Health care is a harder nut to crack though, because of the unfairly large differential between a licensed doctor and all other potential providers of this service, and because licensed physicians are selfishly unwilling to “share”. The good news is that some doctors are starting to come around, and the indisputable success of Obamacare is showing that health care consumer products need not contain real doctors, just like your satisfying bag of Cheesy Poofs contains no real cheese. It’s a miracle of sorts….. Bud Light is still beer. Cheers.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

The Starbucks Method for Primary Care

Whether you like it or not health care financing is transitioning from payment for discrete services to global payment for value. Whether you agree with this trend, or comprehend its meaning, if it has one, is largely irrelevant in the short term. The government of the United States, the Chamber of Commerce, both political parties, all health care stakeholders, and even your own medical associations are fervently supporting, and actively promoting, paying you for value instead of work.

Value is defined by a set of statistical metrics calculated across the spectrum of services you provide, and some that you don’t. So for example, if Starbucks were to be paid for value, they would get say, $2 for a venti latte, plus a fluctuating amount based on the average temperature of their lattes, the ratio of espresso to milk, the percent of air in the foam, the time from door to latte, etc., over a representative period of say 90 days in year one and maybe 12 months in subsequent years. To enable latte valuation, all espresso machines would be fitted with special monitors interfaced to local cash registers and to centralized centers of value. The exact value-based bonus would be calculated by analyzing the statistical distribution of metrics across all coffee shops in the country, adjusted for regional and demographic variation of their clients.

If Howard Schultz would be notified tomorrow morning of a transition to value-based payment for coffee, he would most likely protest loudly, but at the same time he would find a way to get $10 for his lattes while the coffee debates are raging across the nation. And so would every independent coffee shop still in existence. Health care is of course much more complicated than making espresso drinks, but the principle is the same. Unless you find a way to keep your doors open during bad times, you will not be around to enjoy the fruits of your efforts to bring about the good times. Assuming you wish to continue selling coffee, there are two (legal) options to consider: sell fake lattes for less than $2, like they have in every self-respecting gas station, or do what Howard Schultz would do in a similar situation.

The Howard Schultz option for independent primary care could be summarized as the answer to the following question: what do I need to do in my practice, so that I can collect enough revenue to continue providing the excellent care my patients are accustomed to? Below are some suggestions that may allow you to do just that. You could look at these suggestions as encouragement to sell your soul to the devil, or you could look at them as an optimal way for creating enough breathing room for you, and your patients, until common sense prevails. If you are tempted to dismiss this, in view of the recent (partial) success of grassroots efforts to beat back the ABIM MOC, please keep in mind that by and large those who fought ABIM were board certified physicians in good standing. Fighting for a good cause does not mean that you first have to commit financial and professional suicide.

Beginning on January 1st, 2015, Medicare will be paying physicians for chronic care management (CCM) services, if and only if, a certified EHR is used in the practice. This is the first time Medicare is tying payment for a CPT code, to the use of specific technology, and it may very well be a harbinger of things to come. Medicare is essentially stating that unless you buy and use a government certified EHR (not just any EHR), it will refuse to pay you for any work (other than face to face visits) that you do for your chronically ill patients. It is fascinating to note that Medicare acknowledges that certified EHRs cannot help much with CCM services, and you may need other software products for this purpose. Nevertheless you must also purchase a certified EHR.

On February 12th, 2015 the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation Center (CMMI) has announced a new payment model for cancer care, the Oncology Care Model (OCM), modeled after the CCM, but paying four times as much to oncology practices only. The OCM is going to enter pilot phase in 2016, and chances are it will be elevated to an official CPT code shortly thereafter.  Taking the CCM one step further, the oncology care management fee will be paid exclusively to practices that attest to currently mandated meaningful use levels (Stage 2 for now), although meaningful use has practically nothing to do with oncology care.

It is not implausible to assume that these are just the first steps in making collection and dissemination of clinical data, along with kickbacks to the tech and certification industry, a condition for practicing medicine. If you think you can somehow “escape” these mandates by dropping public insurance plans, you should note that the OCM pilot mandates participation of commercial insurance plans in this form of payment. Unlike the puny meaningful use incentives/penalties, both CCM and OCM fees can add up to large amounts of recurring revenues for a complex set of services. If you don’t have a certified EHR, your choices are to either continue performing these services for free, or cease to provide them altogether. Strangely enough, nobody seems to question the legality of such scheme.

Bottom Line

Go ahead and get yourself a (cheap) certified EHR, and use it sparingly if you so desire. Make sure you know how to get all the data out of the EHR, because chances are you will want to dump it when things get better. Keep in mind that even under the best case scenario, technology will not improve overnight. It takes several years to build (or refurbish) a good EHR, and EHR vendors are now operating within a regulatory pay for performance mentality, i.e. studying for the (certification) test and cheating to survive. Even if Medicare drops its ill-conceived meaningful use program tomorrow, it will take time to return to a competitive culture of excellence and customer service, yielding beneficial technology tools for your practice.

It is not likely that value-based payment models will disappear, or be reconfigured to measure benefits to your patients, because there are hundreds of billions of dollars in shareholders profits, and fabulous round trips to Davos, riding on this one simple innovation. It is equally unlikely that physician payments will grow in the near future, and there is every reason to assume that payments will decline sharply, as the system adjusts itself to serving increasing numbers of underinsured poor people. It will be very important for you to strike an optimal balance between keeping your costs down, and increasing your value-based revenues.

Finally, for those insisting that their practice is doing just fine without all this unsolicited advice, this may be so for now. And for a few fortunate physicians, it may be so for long enough to reach comfortable retirement. Perhaps a handful more would be able to extricate themselves from this mess by catering exclusively to the few that need not concern themselves with costs of anything.  Everybody else should find a way to collect $10 for their lattes.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Health care is a massive market…

America is spending $3 trillion on health care every year. Does that number include toothpaste? Surely toothpaste is very important to your health. How about baby powder, diapers, condoms, soap, lip balm, nail clippers, detergents, mops, vacuum cleaners, washing machines, smoke detectors, air filters and air bags? How about everything Nike sells, diet books, your gym membership, bicycles, skateboards, everything Sports Authority carries in its stores, and all Weight Watchers products? And then there is quinoa and edamame, spelt, flax, organic kale chips and those scrumptious gluten-free kelp smoothies. You can also count the entire budget of the EPA, the FAA, the CDC, the FDA and the USDA, and while at it let’s not forget the war on drugs, the war on poverty and the war on terror, and of course education and vacation, sunscreen, traffic lights, firefighters, police and those weirdly bluish ice-melting crystals for your driveway. It sure looks like we are spending all our money on caring for our health.

In America, we spend $3 trillion every year on medical care, not health care. Medical care is what you get mostly from doctors and nurses, mostly in hospitals or clinics, and mostly when you are sick or hurt. Medical care is most often associated with pain, suffering and fear, and is something most people, most of the time, don’t use, don’t need and don’t want. The new thinking says that if we could spend less money on medical care, we could spend more on Bluetooth enabled holographic toothpaste, and that this is a good thing. After all, most of our $3 trillion is spent on a small fraction of sick and elderly citizens, most of whom will never get better anyway. Wouldn’t it be more fun to spend our money on nice things for the majority who is basically healthy, so they can be even healthier, and perhaps forever healthy?

Also $3 trillion is too much money to spend on regular people, who truth be said can’t really afford it anymore, because according to none other than J.P. Morgan, “US labor compensation is now at a 50-year low relative to both company sales and US GDP”, while “[corporate] profit margins have reached levels not seen in decades”, and miraculously “reductions in wages and benefits explain the majority of the net improvement in margins” [emphasis in the original]. When your wages and benefits are at a 50 year low relative to GDP, courtesy of the general plutonomy, and your medical care expenses are at an all-time high relative to the same GDP, courtesy of the medical-industrial plutocrats, you have two basic choices. Start a revolution, or let yourself be wooed by the thieves. Revolutions are hard and very inconvenient for consumers, so sit back and be wooed.

Medical care is sick care. Sick care sounds depressing, and sick care is expensive. Sick care is what happens where health care fails. Health care is cheap and pleasant. Better health care will obviate the need for sick care. Ergo, we should invest heavily in health care right here, right now, and quit funding exorbitantly priced products and services for sick care, because soon, very soon, there will be no sick people. For some, midlife crisis means buying a red Porsche, for Google owners it means spending $1.5 billion on the fountain of youth. For Peter Thiel, it means actually becoming immortal. For CVS pharmacies it means changing the company name to CVS Health. For Apple it means releasing a plebian version of the fountain of youth called simply Health. And for the rest of us, it means paralyzing fear.

The best is behind us. The American Century is over. Ebola is going to kill us all, and if not Ebola then the measles will. And if not disease, then surely we will fall prey to the toddler invasion from Guatemala, or the long-range nuclear missiles of the Russian Empire, or the marauding bands of sociopaths roaming the Arabian desserts in Toyota pickup trucks, raping and decapitating everybody in their path, not to mention the global ice age descending on Boston with the fury of a theory scorned. History teaches us that every great nation has to fail and every governance model is destined to perish and all societies will eventually disintegrate. Today is our turn to die. But then the drums begin to bang and the stars fall from the sky, the moon turns red with blood and the trumpet sounds its call.

Behold the vision of the saints as they go marching in, masterfully weaving the Narcissistic obsessions of the young and healthy with the helplessness and impotence imposed on the marginalized masses. An Apple a day keeps the doctor away. We will solve all your medical care problems caused entirely by your failure to be healthy. We will manage your wellness, your food, your activity, your thoughts, your desires and your disillusion, and we will make sure that you function within optimal parameters. We will take preventive actions at the very first sign of malfunction, long before it becomes sickness or injury. We will keep you, your children and your children’s children, healthy and productive. This is our solemn promise to you and we may even keep it, if you obey us and always do right. As the sign that you are keeping this promise, you must strap this bracelet on every man and boy in your family, and yes, of course dear, womenfolk too.

Here is a free app if you agree to swallow our drugs, and here is a free test if you let us decide what to do with the results, and here is a free toaster if you get a mortgage, and here is free health insurance letting you have any doctor or hospital you want, as long as it’s the one we picked for you. Here is your freely elected representative, programmed to say what you want to hear, on a soft bluish background because we know from your genomic sequence that bluish colors engender your trust in us. No sweetie, we don’t think you’re stupid, but you are weak and frightened. We are just trying to do what’s best for you and we appreciate your input, your tweets, your blogs, your amusing comments, your die-ins and even a little arson and looting, if done in good taste. One day you will be grateful for our guidance and the limits we are setting for you now. Or maybe not, but by then you’ll all be dead anyway, so frankly darling, we don’t give a damn.

Saturday, January 31, 2015

Primary Care Is So Over

There are close to a quarter million primary care physicians in the U.S., more than any other individual specialty, and about half the total number of all specialists combined. Yet, somehow, primary care seems to lack the power and social influence necessary to chart its own professional course. As the availability and granularity of specialist physicians increased, the value proposition of a generalist primary care doctor seems to have become unclear to those who pay for medical services and to physicians as well. As a result, primary care medicine was forced to price itself lower than specialized medicine, and now it is being forced to compete with a variety of other business models. Primary care seems to be experiencing an identity crisis, unable to decide if it is the cornerstone of medicine, or an antiquated service whose time has passed.

What is primary care?

The primary care name itself can be understood in two very different ways, depending on how you translate the word primary. It could be seen as the first step one needs to take when engaging with the medical system, a step followed by secondary care, tertiary care, etc. This is the gatekeeping view, where primary care doctors apply their knowledge to direct patients to appropriate specialized resources, if necessary. Since there could be multiple specialized resources, and since medicine is very complex, the gatekeeper doctor is also tasked with follow up, coordination and general supervision. In the business world, this job is known as project management, and it is usually filled by workers that need not be expert at anything other than management of tasks and resources.

Another way to look at primary care is to assert that it is the central and predominant type of medical care, or the way most medical care is provided. In this model, the primary care physician is expected to treat and resolve all but the most unusual medical problems, which may from time to time require a consult with a specialized resource. A consult is not the same as a transfer of care. This type of practice requires that the primary care physician has more knowledge and more understanding of the patient than all transient specialists put together. And this type of super doctor cannot be either underpaid or easily replaced. Unfortunately, short of some old timers here and there, nobody practices primary care quite this way anymore.

There are many reasons why medicine developed into an essentially fragmented model of care. The often touted explosion in medical knowledge, beyond what one human can accumulate and apply, is probably not as instrumental here as money and power seem to be. There are only a handful of diseases that make life miserable for most people, and eventually kill us all, and data shows that most medical resources are spent on a tiny percentage of people at any given time. It is difficult to reconcile these realities with the assertion that we need hundreds of thousands of highly specialized resources, because no one doctor can master the intricacies of a few run of the mill diseases occurring over and over across the board, and seriously affecting only a minority of patients. This, by the way, should not be confused with the obvious need for having a great variety of specialized research in academic and industry settings.

Whatever else it might be, primary care is a $100 billion per year industry in complete disarray. In addition to its own revenues, primary care as it stands today, heavily influences the flow of revenues in all other health care sectors. This should explain rather nicely why so many businesses are trying to be part of it, trying to reform it, reinvent it, flip it, control it, or just replace it. What practically all these innovations have in common is a tacit agreement to adopt the lighter definition of what primary care consists of, for the very simple reason of reducing barriers to entry into this potentially lucrative market.

Keeping People Healthy

In today’s complex environment, individuals cannot be trusted to care for themselves or their children, and rightfully so. The survival and prosperity of our society is predicated on passive consumption of massive quantities of goods and services. Our electronic way of life is designed based on the timeless axiom of “don’t make me think”, and an extra click of a button is considered undue burden on average consumers. We are expected to ingest billions of Big Macs to keep the economy chugging, and go through trillions of disposable trinkets sold on the Internet to keep WWIII from erupting. Even getting the news every morning has been replaced with news “feeds” to save you the long walk down the driveway to pick up the old newspaper. And turning pages, even on the Internet, is too much of an imposition. What makes us excellent consumers is also rendering us unfit to be trusted with our own health.

In this age of patient empowerment and freedom from paternalistic physicians, it seems that primary care doctors are being put in charge of keeping us healthy. It only seems that way though, because nobody needs a doctor’s education and expertise, not to mention expense, to figure out what every good grandma, and every single one of us, knows already. Besides, going to see a doctor does not fit with our tried and true, instantly gratifying, passive consumption paradigm. In our new way of so called life, primary care becomes an electronic assistant that uses, and is used by, every consumer, every day. Note that the modern term “primary care provider” is specifically geared to this low level function. Nobody uses the term cardiology provider, or surgery provider, or even pediatrics provider, to refer to a medical doctor. Primary care is different.
  • Primary care monitors your food intake and level of exercise, reminding you to eat your veggies (or no dessert) and take your constitutional regularly
  • Primary care reminds you, or schedules for you, health screenings and preventive care services as recommended by your government
  • Primary care monitors your vital signs and lets you know if normal parameters are exceeded
  • Primary care answers your questions if you feel under the weather, or just concerned that you might be
  • Primary care treats minor illness and injuries, such as mosquito bites and nail fungus
  • Primary care is available 24x7 from the comfort of your iPhone, or in extreme cases next to the bakery counter at your favorite discount store
  • Primary care is provided by Siri and augmented by certified technicians with impeccable customer service credentials
If you have a sudden urge to kick me in the shins right now, remember that primary care is not your profession. You are credentialed in Family Medicine, Internal Medicine or Pediatric Medicine, keyword here being Medicine. Yes, you may be providing some of these services for some of your patients, mostly for free, but is this really what you want to do all day, every day? Yes, having people come see you when they are healthy, better equips you to care for them when they are sick, but this seems a luxury few can afford today. The new primary care has as much to do with practicing medicine, as fixing traffic tickets has to do with practicing law. It is a piece of your old practice that has been successfully carved out by competing businesses that can and will be providing these, and many more, services to your patients. And if you’re not careful, specialists will take whatever is left on your plate.

Healing the Sick

When primary care was defined by Barbara Starfield as high quality, compassionate, comprehensive general medicine, it was an honor to be called a primary care physician. Today, the term is becoming essentially oxymoronic. Physicians, contemplating the plucking of low hanging fruit from their scope of practice, are usually concerned with being forced to juggle a schedule full of complex patients, with no cognitive respite throughout the day. This, however, is highly unlikely. If you subtract the healthy and easy patients from your schedule, they are not going to be magically replaced by an equal number of very sick individuals. Instead of 25 to 30 spurts of quick encounters, you are more likely to experience 12 to 15 long visits per day. Is that so bad?

It is very bad if your pay rate stays the same. It is spectacularly good if it doubles and triples. Whereas primary care physicians of the past are trapped in high-volume hamster wheel races, the new family docs, internists and pediatricians will be providing real value to their patients. Since the pundits are screaming from every rooftop that we should be transitioning from volume to value, this seems like a perfect arrangement for all stakeholders. Value, of course, needs to be valued, so paying, say, $300 for a doctor visit (not to be confused with primary care) sounds pretty respectable to me.

Corner drugstores are full of medicines and gadgets that used to be exclusively available from doctors. There is nothing new in transitioning tests and therapies into the hands of the lay public. You don’t have a microscope and a rabbit in your office, do you? Quit worrying about nurses and retail stores and the Internet stealing your lunch. You didn’t go to medical school to coach poor people on their sinful lifestyles and their need to be righteous and deserving of charity. You wanted to heal the sick, so have at it. If you want to fight for something, don’t fight for volume. Fight for value. Your value.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Artificial Intelligence

Did you know that the Ford Motor Company which created the first mass produced horseless carriage in 1908 is one of the largest manufacturers of automobiles a century later? Did you notice how cars today look almost the same as the Model T? They are all made of metal, have four wheels, a steering wheel, a dashboard, a windshield, two rows of seats and an engine. Closer inspection reveals that all newer car manufacturers make cars that look and feel just like the cars made by the Ford Motor Company. And they all drive on roads and use wheels, wheels, the hottest disruptive innovation of the Neolithic era. Truly disruptive innovation, unlike its short lived destructive cousins, stretches across millennia of useful applications.

Strangely enough, beds and tables and chairs, and the houses they furnish, look basically the same as those used by Louis XIV. Bread loaves and wine look the same too, and so do fishes. Another thing that hasn’t changed much from the beginning of time is the fertility of our collective imagination. At one time we imagined cherubs floating on clouds and magical beings who control the world and every single life within it. Entire industries sprung around that innovation, industries whose thought-leaders ruled the world in the name and on behalf of our imaginary hopes and mostly fears. For a while there, we decided that imagination is a personal thing and it should be separated from the mundane tangibles of our earthly affairs. That didn’t last long.

What separates us from the hapless creatures we are now killing by the bushel is the capacity and need to believe in something greater than ourselves, something that transcends our mortality and provides us with a purpose external to our own existence. First it was the certain belief in an omnipotent, and incomprehensible to mere mortals, intelligent design of the world we live in. Now it is the arrogant belief in our ability to create our future creator, an artificial intelligence to supersede our own, and to shape the world in ways beyond the wildest dreams of avarice and the trembling terrors of perdition’s flames. The age old puzzle of whether God can make a rock so big and heavy that even He cannot lift it, seems about to be resolved.

Suffering today, being beaten, tortured, starved and killed, is just fine, because after that comes your own personal Garden of Eden. Being unemployed, unemployable and living on meager handouts with no hope for a better future for you or your children, is perfectly fine, because after that comes “the eradication of disease and poverty”. Well, it is not “unfathomable” that it comes, and that’s pretty good, so go ahead and fathom amongst yourselves. And be afraid, very afraid, because unless you give us more money to study how we should go about doing the right thing, some really scary scenarios, such as having Gov. Schwarzenegger chase you in the middle of the night, are also fathomable. When? Sooner than you think, if you are still thinking, otherwise let’s say next Tuesday.

Stating that we are on the verge of creating artificial intelligence superior to the human brain, when we can't even make artificial chickens at this point, sounds a bit specious, doesn’t it? But that is not preventing us from incessantly talking and writing about it in order to generate the tried and true mixture of hopes for salvation, at an unspecified time in the future, with immediate and actionable fears of doing wrong today. We have magnificent prophets and we already have the heretics lined up as well. Did you ever wonder why some prophets had their litanies included in definitive compilations of bibles, while others were literally and figuratively burned at the stake? It may be helpful to look behind the curtains at those who anointed the prophets then and those who are anointing them now, because they are one and the same.

The job of prophets has always been to strip commoners of their ability to make independent decisions. Today’s prophets of disruptive innovation are showing us the road to becoming Roman patricians spending our entire lives sprawled on fainting couches while being fanned and fed gorgeous grapes by beautiful machines. The first thing we must do is to offload decision making to the precursor of the slave-savant machine of the future, so it can learn and practice the art and science of pleasuring us. Letting your GPS decide how to get from point A to point B is one example, and letting Google decide what you should read is another, although the latter may soon become obsolete, since enjoying grapes on your couch does not require any reading. Letting your “phone” decide when you should stand and when you should sit, when to eat and what to eat, and when you feel and how you feel is the next step in our evolution towards a perfect union between amino acids and silicon compounds.  

Perhaps nothing illustrates our glorious path to heaven on earth better than health care, and befittingly so, since health is life, hence health care is life care, is everything. The old definition of health care included mostly restorative medical activities to one’s health, but as the value of people keeps declining in an overpopulated global economy, and the costs of repairs are increasing, a more expansive, machine oriented, definition seems in order. People, you see, are essentially carbon-based machines, like say cars, the only analogy simpleminded voters seem to comprehend. To reduce your lifetime expenses on your car, and to enjoy a reliable vehicle for the duration, you need to have all the maintenance done on schedule (e.g. oil changes, tire rotation, filters, belts, etc.), drive carefully and obey the law, use the car sparingly, without too much starting and stopping, and you should wash and wax regularly, and generally keep it nice and clean inside and out.

You get the recommended preventive care for your model, all the screenings and tests, so any early signs of malfunction can be addressed, and you swallow all the recommended additives to make operations smooth and well lubricated, without undue stress to any of your parts, especially the feeble brain part. You refrain from reckless activities, and keep your mind and body clean on the inside and on the outside. The prophets, or futurists, as they prefer to be addressed today, are guiding us to all sorts of little silicon parts that we can incorporate in ourselves on the incremental road to transferring the limited intelligence functionality of biological creatures to superior artificial components. This simple process of artificial evolution towards a brighter future does not seem to come naturally to most people. These things never do. This is precisely why piety and obedience need to be enforced by cannons and laws, and here and there a few weaklings or outright skeptics must be made examples of what people should fear most.

Google is now making self-driving cars and in the future it will be making self-driving people. Whereas the self-driving Google cars look the same as those made by the Ford Motors Company, the futuristic self-driving Google people will look indistinguishable from the Neolithic geniuses who invented the wheel. And just like the Google cars are not really driving themselves, the Google people won’t either. Google is driving the cars and Google will be driving the people, and Google is driven by people. As it always has been and as it always shall be, a handful of megalomaniacal people will be driving masses of other people into hopeless existence, although, this time around, hopelessness should come with grape-dispensing machines and free happy pills.

Artificial intelligence is not autonomous machine intelligence. Artificial intelligence is not the fictional story of cyborgs roaming the earth. It is the story of the Wizard of Oz, the story of Stalin and Maoist reeducation, the story of Torquemada and the Dark Ages, the story of Egyptian Pharaohs and high priests clad in jewels accepting offerings from starving barefooted men while overseeing ritual sacrifices. It is the story of a cosmically inconsequential power trip that may set us back millennia instead of just centuries. At times like this, we should keep in mind that the true innovations driving humanity, and all cyclical prophecies of bliss and gloom along the way, were invented by men who were just slightly removed from apes.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Why Physicians Must Unionize

If F. A. Hayek were alive today, he would support the revival of labor unions in general and professional labor unions in particular. Towards the end of the Second World War, Hayek wrote a book warning us all that allowing governments to engage in extensive central planning of economic activities is nothing more than a road to serfdom for humanity. F.A. Hayek was not an Ayn Rand sociopath, and he included in his vision reasonable government regulation of markets, strong safety nets, and something that looks awfully similar to the avant-garde “guaranteed basic income” discussed nowadays in some European countries. Unfortunately for us, and kudos to Prof. Hayek, seventy years after the publication of his book, we are well on our way to universal indentured servitude.

Ordinary Citizens

In September 2014, Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page, two Princeton researchers, published the results of a longitudinal study on policy decisions in the U.S. from 1981 to 2002. After crunching enormous amounts of data, Gilens and Page conclude that “economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence”. In spite of enjoying all the trappings of democracy (e.g. freedom of speech, widespread franchise), we seem to live in a “democracy by coincidence, in which ordinary citizens get what they want from government only when they happen to agree with elites or interest groups that are really calling the shots”.

Perhaps that’s how it always was, and certainly that’s how it is now, but at several points in our history government enacted policies in stark contrast to the interests of both economic elites and business interests. Labor laws were just such an occurrence. Labor unions in their various formats could be viewed as the tool by which the interests of average citizens, the “revolt from below”, were channeled into mass-based interest groups that were powerful enough to counteract the interests of economic elites and their business groups, at least for a while. When big business managed to weaken the early unions during the 1920s, we got ourselves a Great Recession. In the midst of our self-inflicted misery, unions came back roaring to take on big businesses and the government they thoroughly controlled. Most workplace protections and gains in workers’ wages date to that era. Eventually though, big business prevailed. The Taft-Harley Act (or the “slave-labor bill”, as Harry Truman referred to it) was enacted in 1947, and it all went downhill from there to this day.

Physicians

Physicians in the U.S. belong to the economic elites, as defined by Gilens and Page. Theoretically speaking, the profession should have been able to influence government policies to its advantage, and arguably that was the case for most of the twentieth century. In the 21st century, we are witnessing the industrialization of medicine, and although physicians are still handsomely compensated for their labor, a marked deterioration in their working conditions is gradually occurring. Whereas the industrial revolutions decimated the numbers of master craftsmen who owned their own tools (means of production) and increased the number of journeymen (workers for hire), the industrialization of medicine is decimating the ranks of physicians who own medical facilities, while swelling the ranks of employed doctors.

The master craftsmen of two hundred years ago were driven out of business, and down into wage labor, because they could not compete with industrialized manufacturing. Independent physicians today are driven into employment solely by government policies, since industrial medicine is neither cheaper, nor better than the cottage industry it replaces. Medicine is not really undergoing a revolution as much as a hostile takeover by big business, with full government support. Once a critical mass of employed physicians is reached, and independent practice is no longer viewed as a viable option, chances are that the wages of physicians will more closely align with the wages of every other labor sector. This is therefore the very last opportunity for doctors to leverage their economic elite status and find a way to pair it with an equally powerful interest group, i.e. a Union.

When unions were strong, America prospered. When unions were crushed, neutered or fell victim to their own internal corruption, American economy barely sputtered along. Big business propaganda notwithstanding, unions are not about socialism, communism or collectivism. The sole purpose of unions in a capitalist economy is to counterbalance the excessive influence of economic elites and business interest groups, allowing ordinary citizens to get what they want from time to time. Unions are there to preserve democracy and keep us off that cursed road to serfdom. Even if you are a hardcore free-market conservative, sincerely believing that organized labor is evil, you must understand that often times it takes a lesser evil to combat the greater evil. Discussing, analyzing, lamenting, advocating or pontificating, is no longer sufficient.

A Physicians Union

A physicians union would be very different than the labor unions of the twentieth century. A physicians union would be a true innovation. To be effective, a physicians union would need to include in its folds both employed and independent doctors. Thus, a physicians union cannot be a traditional labor union. Both employed physicians’ salaries and independent doctors’ revenues are driven by the same factors, and although regulatory actions burden independents to larger extents, all are adversely affected by government policies. As long as there is no excess supply of physicians, the alignment of interests between independents and salaried docs, far exceeds any real or perceived conflicts.

The same cannot be said about medical specialties, but a truly powerful physicians union will need to include all specialists as well. If the original Medicare fee setting process drove an enormous wedge between primary care and specialists, the new value-based payment schemes are well positioned to amplify and exacerbate conflicts across all specialties. It is therefore imperative for a physicians union to resolve these conflicts and find a way to work together, or in other words, get over it, because the exact order in which you go down is less important than the fact that eventually everybody will be taken down.

And then there’s politics, but I have faith that intelligent and educated people understand by now that the sole difference between progressive and conservative agendas, is a personal preference to have your serfdom managed either through a government intermediary, or directly by the business overlords. There are also legal issues to ferret out and negotiate. But by far the toughest barrier to creating such union consists of the physicians themselves. Unlike the miners or the railroad workers who build the labor unions in this country, physicians don’t live in squalor, and they don’t put their lives on the line every day for a pittance. As a group, physicians are largely conservative and not given to activism. And this is precisely why an American physicians union can become the most formidable social innovation of our times.

Together We Stand

Did you know that on January 12th, 2,600 mental health workers and 700 other workers at Kaiser Permanente in California will be launching a strike to protest the inadequacy of mental health care at Kaiser? They won’t accomplish much, if anything. There is no coverage in the media, no buzz, no controversy, no lengthy exposés, no debate and no threats from the White House. What do you think would be the reaction if 17,000 physicians employed by Kaiser would walk out at the same time? And what would happen if several hundred thousand members of the Physicians Union of America would walk out as well? I bet mental health services at Kaiser, and everywhere else, would be the talk of the nation, and somehow the funds to hire and pay decent wages to mental health professionals would miraculously materialize.

Imagine a professional union fighting for the freedom of its individual members to exercise professional judgment for the sole benefit of individual citizens. Imagine a medical union fighting to provide the best care to ordinary citizens, free from the whims of the political and business classes. Now close your eyes and imagine the shock and awe created by a union of the best, the brightest, the most successful, most educated, most trusted, most ethical and most irreplaceable group of citizens, standing up and unequivocally stating that central planning has gone too far and has reached levels of immorality that are beyond what a free society can peacefully tolerate.  Then imagine that such union has the power to shut down every hospital, every medical facility and every practice, in every city, every town and every hamlet across the land, bringing the medical industrial complex to a grinding halt.  And now, open your eyes and make a wish...